CFC and The Game of Bullsh*t

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When I was a kid, we used to play this card game called Bullsh*t. Basically a deck of cards is dealt evenly to all players and they begin by putting cards face down in the middle and stating what those cards are. The other players if they don't believe them can call "bullsh*t" and the cards just placed in the middle are turned over. If that player was lying they would pick up all the cards in the middle. Player with the most cards at the end loses.

Every now and then you'd get the dumb kid that says "5 Aces" and the rest of the kids believe them :P. What does this have to do with investing? well I think that CFC is playing a round or two of home-loan Q4 profitability Bullsh*t. During their earnings call they said the worst was pretty much over and they would return to profitability in Q4. Riight. Anyway, the world took the bait and CFC moved up... but look at it now.

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