Facebook: Microsoft's next GIANT acquisition?
I have a strong belief that Microsoft (MSFT) could acquire Facebook. This might seem like a crazy idea, but please hear me out.
Pattern: Large company makes a significant investment in another company that is potentially distressed, later to acquire that other company entirely.
As we saw today, Bank of American (BAC) is set to acquire Countrywide Financial (CFC) and I believe we'll see this with Microsoft (MSFT) acquiring Facebook. Here's why this fits our pattern AND makes sense for Microsoft:
#1: For one, they are trying to compete with Google, not just on the search frontier, but now the entire Web frontier. One of the two (sorry Yahoo (YHOO), sorry Al Gore) wants to "own" or be the web and to do that they a majority of the user base (to sell to) and they really need to own the web experience (to keep them coming back).
#2: It's no secret that Microsoft is making serious efforts to compete with Google (GOOG). They've already showed their hand, and opened up the kimono.
User Base: Microsoft already made the investment in Facebook, paying them to be the sole advertiser to Facebook users. You could argue that they already have the Facebook user base and that base is not going to grow at a significant rate, but I argue that this is not true. Other organizations are starting to their online apps Facebook compatability or have some tie back into Facebook. Blockbuster.com for one sends the movies you queue to your Facebook feed. Other's are doing the same. So you see, Facebook is different from other social networking apps like Friendster.com, Zoodango.com, etc. in that they can easily leverage other people's audience. Microsoft's AdCenter could then claim to advertising clients that they have the largest user base or the fastest growing.
Experience: Well the experience is all about rich, connected content. Adobe (ADBE) Flash is the de facto platform. Microsoft wants it's new Silverlight to be the new one, but unfortunately the adoption rate isn't great. Go to Microsoft.com and you'll notice a pop up that asks you if you want to install Silverlight. Microsoft could take over Facebook and say Facebook 2.0 uses Silverlight to deliver "the newest and richest features yet" and force the entire Facebook base to install Silverlight.
Potentially Distressed: The founder of Facebook is facing litigation alleging that he unlawfully took code that was contracted for another social networking product and used it for Facebook. If you were him, and had a multi-billion dollar deal now for your product that you *might* lose later, would you take it? Oh hell ya. I think Facebook turned down Yahoo's deal not because the founder doesn't like money, it was because Facebook had so much more potential and could fetch a heftier price later, kudos to the Facebook strategy team.
A Facebook acquisition by Microsoft represents an opportunity for them to literally kill two or more mammals (forget just birds) with one stone. With one acquisition, Microsoft can significantly increase the profitability of their ad network service (now) AND increase their strangle-hold and share of the "Internet" (later) with some serious kung-fu grip. What about those people who say "if Microsoft buys Facebook, we're going to stop using it and use "? Oh please, people on average have 100+ contacts per Facebook account -- do you really think that they will take the time to migrate 100+ users from one system to another just because they "used to like Facebook but not anymore because Microsoft owns it now"?
What do you guys think? Am I out to lunch?
Comments